NBA Dreams

I've been curious about how positions play out in this league for a while, especially on drafting. So I looked back through the years, and rated some players. Top 5 might be a bit arbitrary, but it's generally considered to be an elite player, so I figured it would be a good cutoff. Ironically, #6 picks have been pretty disastrous, so I was considering adding them, but figured against it. Obviously some subjectivity, but I'm not really biased, so shouldn't matter too much.

Format:

Year
Pick One: Player, position, success on 1-5 scale; scale goes from
0 - complete failure
1 - hung around for a while, but never amounted to all that much
2 - serviceable role player
3 - solid starter
4 - very good player
5 - HOF caliber

Obviously some projections used in the latter drafts.....

2005 - 4.0
1. Leo Porter - C - 5
2. Tex Kelly - PF - 5
3. Nolan Kimball - SF - 3
4. Robert Calloway - C - 2
5. Akili Read - PG - 5

2006 - 3.4
1. Benny Patel - C - 5
2. Mike Good year - PF - 5
3. Joe Patten - C - 3
4. Curtis Deal - PG - 2
5. Donyll Schaftlein - SF - 2

2007 - 2.6
1. Blake Ransdell - PG - 4
2. Ricky Harvey - PG - 1
3. Cameron Bruce - PF - 3
4. Earl Sherman - PG - 5
5. LeRoy Monsour - C - 0

2008 - 2.2
1. Hans Grant - C - 1
2. Cirius Alexander - SF - 2
3. Nate Westerfield - C - 5
4. Fran Cooley - SG - 1
5. Rodney Platt - C - 2

2009 - 2.6
1. Emmett Stringer - SG - 4
2. Kevin Paulsen - C - 5
3. Roger Smith - SF - 1
4. Kenneth Orourke - SF - 0
5. Leland Knotts - PF - 3

2010 - 2.4
1. Grant Dyke - C - 3
2. Laramie Marquez - SF - 3
3. Ricardo Wendler - SG - 0
4. Marvin Trujillo - PF - 4
5. Neil Eagle - SF - 2

2011 - 1.6
1. Lee Crenshaw - SF - 2
2. Norman Copeland - C - 3
3. Shane Black - SG - 0
4. Riley Coyote - SG - 2
5. Alvin Garcia - PG - 1

2012 - 4.2
1. Clayton Curry - C - 5
2. Samuel Hinnant - PG - 5
3. Ronald Russell - C - 3
4. Paul Birdsell - PF - 3
5. George Anderson - SG - 5

2013 - 1.6
1. Rocky Dyer - SF - 3
2. Gill Jim - SG - 0
3. Joshua Blosveren - SF - 2
4. Galen Purdy - PF - 1
5. John Wheeler - PF - 2

2014 - 2.2
1. Clinton Mitzel - C - 5
2. Earl Provost - C - 3
3. Dejuan Gordon - SF - 3
4. Conrad Curtis - SG - 1
5. Ainsley Herzog - SG - 0

2015 - 2.8
1. Kristopher Diaz - C - 4
2. Benny Ward - C - 4
3. Russell Alvarez - SF - 2
4. Freddie Sheets - C - 1
5. Kevin Gonzalez - SF - 3

2016 - 2.4
1. Saer Sene - PG - 4
2. Andrew Satterfield - C - 2
3. Roland Wade - PG - 5
4. Lloyd Rose - SG - 0
5. Lamont Sanford - C - 1

2017 - 2.2
1. Rodney Carney - PF - 4
2. Marty Solomon - PF - 1
3. Otto Burk - SG - 1
4. Rick Derringer - SF - 2
5. Ted Cureton - PG - 3

2018 - 3.4
1. Jerome Wilmot - PG - 3
2. Norman Rhoades - C - 3
3. Virgil Weakley - PG - 5
4. Richard Winchester - C - 5
5. Paul Saladino - SG - 1

2019 - 3.6
1. Larry Layden - PG - 3
2. Floyd Tracy - PG - 5
3. Joe Kaplan - PG - 3
4. Steven Brock - PF - 2
5. Tyrone Hughes - SG - 5

2020 - 2.8
1. Jodie Flake - SG - 5
2. Herman Atkins - SF - 1
3. Randall Golden - PG - 3
4. Paris Vercher - PG - 2
5. Damian Evans - SF - 3

2021 - 2.8
1. Chad McNelly - PG - 3
2. Gilberto Wicker - SF - 2
3. Jerry Mcanally - PF - 3
4. Darren Peters - SG - 2
5. Morris Harper - SF - 4

2022 - 2.2
1. Angelo Kidwell - PG - 3
2. Joshua Kozlowski - SG - 1
3. Jesus Mitchel - SF - 3
4. Johnny Pippin - C - 3
5. Denis Cunningham - SF - 1

2023 - 3.4
1. Charlie Rigby - SF - 5
2. Norris Jarrett - C - 3
3. Speedy Busch - PG - 3
4. Theo Stanton - PG - 3
5. Kevin Pratt - C - 3

2024 - 2.6
1. Ronnie Morgan - SG - 3
2. Neal Nall - C - 3
3. Theo Sizemore - PF - 3
4. Tom Hanley - PF - 4
5. Lyle Ismail - C - 0

2025 - 3.0
1. Kim Thue - C - 4
2. Corey Harper - SF - 5
3. Gordon Boswell - PG - 3
4. Rahim Fitzgerald - PG - 1
5. Leland Canter - C - 2

2026 - 3.6
1. Don Kunz - SF - 5
2. Karl Coe - PF - 5
3. Sylvester Dixon - C - 3
4. Calvert Ellis - SG - 1
5. Luc Craig - PG - 4

2027 - 3.4
1. Miguel Burleson - C - 3
2. Demar DeRozan - PF - 4
3. Daniel Franzen - C - 4
4. Frederic Rollins - SF - 4
5. Jorge Stroud - PF - 2

2028 - 3.0
1. Derek Beller - PF - 5
2. Aaron Shepard - C - 3
3. Wayne Stafford - C - 2
4. Derick Bernal - PF - 1
5. Vonte Broham - SF - 4

2029 - 2.6
1. Carl Larue - SF - 3
2. Glenn Winter - PG - 3
3. Ralph Sorenson - SG - 2
4. Rafel Sims - PF - 2
5. Devin Kurasch - SF - 3

2030 - 3.4
1. Jack Williams - PF - 3
2. Guy Erickson - PG - 5
3. Wesley Ong - SF - 3
4. Clifford Billings - PG - 4
5. Eugene Fitzpatrick - PG - 2

Averages per position
C: 34 players, seven 5s, four 4s, thirteen 3s, five 2s, three 1s, two 0s; average of 3.03
PF: 21 players, four 5s, four 4s, six 3s, four 2s, three 1s, zero 0s; average of 3.10
SF: 28 players, three 5s, three 4s, ten 3s, eight 2s, three 1s, one 0; average of 2.71
SG: 19 players, three 5s, one 4, one 3, three 2s, six 1s, five 0s; average of 1.79
PG: 28 players, seven 5s, four 4s, eleven 3s, three 2s, three 1s, zero 0s; average of 3.32

A few things stood out to me:
-Drafts are such a crap-shoot. The average player taken in the top 5 in these drafts was a 2.85, meaning a decent but not great starter.
-There haven't been any heavyweight drafts recently. Four drafts in total have been above a 3.5, which would be a good starter, and only two are above 4.0. Actually surprised that the best draft was the Curry one and not the Read one; probably could delineate a bit more and rectify that.
-Obviously SGs suck. Surprised centers are lower than PF, but I guess they are slightly more mercurial. Not shocked PGs are great.
-One possible reason for this is great SGs are often moved to PG. But great PFs are often moved to SF, so that should skew swingmen a bit higher too.

A history of positional drafting in the top 5